5 Ways Mobile Is Different (And How That Matters)

postedPosted in Cyberspace, Lawyers, Guns & Money, Tech Bytes on August 17th, 2012 by glennm

A few weeks ago, the head of competition for the European Union, Joaquin Almunia, reportedly instructed Google that the search giant must make “sweeping changes” to its business model by extending restrictions the Europeans are insisting upon for Web search into the mobile realm. (See EU Orders Google to Change Mobile Services | Reuters.)

Is he possibly for real? We all know mobile is growing by leaps and bounds, powering political revolutions, connecting the developing world to the new information economy, and disrupting legacy industries. That market dynamism should instead counsel for a restrained approach, delaying government intervention until at least some of the dust settles, because mobile is different. Here’s why — and how that matters.

1.  Apps Rule Mobile, Not Web Search

With more than 300,000 mobile applications released in the last year alone, “apps are increasingly replacing browsers as the method of choice for connected consumers to find and use information.” NielsenWire chartThis striking user preference is neither difficult to discern nor hard to understand. One can see it walking on nearly any downtown street as teenagers query Foursquare and Facebook apps for friend check-ins, businessmen find lunch spots with OpenTable or Yelp, and 20-somethings search for trending hashtag topics inside Twitter’s app. In other words, in the mobile realm apps rule.

Wired’s editor-in-chief Chris Anderson in 2010, along with Square’s COO Keith Rabois in 2011, both predicted flatly that the Web is dying and mobile devices with dedicated apps are to blame. Apple’s Steve Jobs (watch his keynote) said it a bit more provocatively:

On a mobile device, search hasn’t happened. Search is not where it’s at. People aren’t searching on a mobile device like they do on the desktop. What is happening is they are spending all of their time in apps.

The numbers now prove that all three of these pundits were correct. As much as 50% of mobile search is happening in apps today. In March, a remarkably small 18.5% of all smartphone and tablet usage was in the browser; the rest was through apps. Nearly half of smartphone owners today shop using mobile apps. The international wireless association GSMA reported as far back as 2011 that second only to texting (and even more than actual calls), native apps comprise the highest level of smartphone activity. Yelp’s CEO Jeremy Stoppelman told Wall Street on August 2 that a majority of weekend searches now come in through its mobile app and that “by choosing the Yelp app people are bypassing search engines and consequently their engagement is higher.” Even venerable Craigslist is today battling mobile apps.

So mobile Web search is either dead or dying. That’s in part, as explained in the next bullet, because mobile users need, want and expect immediate answers, not a listing of URLs for browsing. Blue links just do not cut it anymore when users are mobile.

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Android, Patent Wars And Antitrust

postedPosted in Business, Lawyers, Guns & Money, Tech Bytes on July 15th, 2011 by glennm

The battle to beat Google’s Android mobile phone OS is quickly turning into a legal bonanza. Apple is suing HTC, Samsung and Motorola, all makers of wireless phones with the Android platform. Oracle is seeking up to $6.1 billion in a patent lawsuit against Google, alleging Android infringes Oracle’s Java patents. And Microsoft is suing Motorola over its Android line.

That’s all perfectly fine from an antitrust and competition standpoint — leaving aside the harder policy question of whether using patent infringement litigation to block competition should be permissible. Enforcing property rights is a legitimate and rational business activity that, absent “sham” lawsuits, is not second-guessed by antitrust enforcement agencies or courts. There can be exclusionary consequences, but they are a result of the patent laws in the first instance, not of themselves anything anticompetitive by the patent holder.

A much more troubling aspect of the increasing IP (or “IPR” as they say across the pond) battles surrounding Android is the recent sale of Nortel’s 6,000 or so wireless patents at a bankruptcy auction in Canada to a collection of bidders including Apple, Microsoft, RIM, EMC, Ericsson and Sony. How Apple Led The High-Stakes Patent Poker Win Against Google, Sealing Ballmer’s Promise | TechCrunch. The winning consortium bid more than $4.5 billion — some five times Google’s opening bid and, according to some pundits, far more than the portfolio was worth — to gain control of the patents.

“Why is the portfolio worth five times more to this group collectively than it is to Google?” said Robert Skitol, an antitrust lawyer at the Drinker Biddle firm. “Why are three horizontal competitors being allowed to collaborate and cooperate and join hands together in this, rather than competing against each other?”

Antitrust Officials Probing Sale of Patents to Google’s Rivals | Washington Post.

These are good questions. Patent “pools,” which are collections of horizontal competitors sharing patent licenses among themselves, are today generally considered procompetitive under the antitrust laws where they (a) are limited to technologically essential or “blocking” patents, and (b) do not contain ancillary restraints, such as resale price-setting or restrictions on participant use of alternative technologies. (MPEG, WiFi, LTE and other communications technologies are prime examples of patent pools.)  The theory is that, with price effects eliminated, the cross-licensing of patents that might otherwise be used to block entry into a market reduces barriers to entry and increases efficiency.

Patent PoolsYet the consortium which won the Nortel wireless portfolio, revealing dubbed “Rockstar Bidco,” includes nearly everyone in the mobile phone and wireless OS businesses except Google. If these players agreed among themselves not to license their own patents to Google, that would be a per se illegal group boycott (also known as a concerted horizontal refusal to deal). Competitors cannot allocate markets or conspire to keep a rival out of the marketplace. It is unclear whether Google was invited to join Rockstar Bidco, but unless Larry, Sergey and Eric turned down such an offer, it seems a fair case can be made that the consortium bid was in effect an implicit horizontal agreement not to include Google. Post-auction, the reality of licenses will clearly tell us whether the joint ownership structure was a pretext to cover a refusal to deal. No one knows what the consortium intends to do with the Nortel patent portfolio; they won’t say. Microsoft, RIM And Partners Mum On Plans For Nortel Patents | Forbes.

This author happens not to be a fan of Android; I’m a very happy iPhone user since day one of the Apple wireless revolution. This does not mean, though, that I can agree with a business strategy in which all of the other players in the mobile phone industry gang up on Google. (It is unclear were Nokia fits into all of this, but given the steadily decreasing share for its Symbian OS, I suspect the inclusion or not of Nokia will not be dispositive.)

The antitrust issue this presents is a thorny one, which frequently comes up in connection with trade associations and technical standards. When competitors collaborate, is under-inclusiveness or over-inclusiveness worse? Which is the bigger threat to competition? That is, if a trade group opens a collective buying consortium, for instance, is it better from an antitrust perspective to require that it be open to all — so that some rivals are not deprived of the scale economies — or that the consortium includes less than all firms in the market — so that competition in purchasing will drive down input prices?

Another concern is that, by excluding Google, the Rockstar consortium allows the other competitors to utilize the patents without paying license fees (since they now own them), leaving Google alone to need licenses for its Android OS. Does Nortel Patent Sale Make Google An Antitrust Victim? | TechFlash. That is a variant of “raising rivals’ costs” (here one rival only), which has over the past three decades become a recognized basis for assessing the anticompetitive nature of unilateral, single-firm conduct. When a group includes horizontal competitors who collectively control a huge share of the market, raising rivals’ costs supplies the anticompetitive “purpose or effect” needed to make out a rule of reason antitrust claim, even if the group boycott concern is misplaced or ameliorated. Here the intent to slow down Android is clear; whether that is anticompetitive, exclusionary or not is more ambiguous. Apple, Microsoft Patent Consortium Trying to Kill Android | eWeek.com.

There are precious few judicial decisions in this area and the IP licensing guidelines from DOJ/FTC do not really speak to the question. For that reason alone, the Rockstar Bidco venture, in my view, merits a very close look by the U.S. competition agencies. Allowing Google’s mobile phone competitors to do indirectly, with joint patent ownership, what they could not do indirectly, by agreeing not to license to Google, would be an incongruous result. On the other hand, a remedy may be worse than the harm. In standards, for example, it is often the case that antitrust risks are mitigated by requiring the holder of an essential patent to agree to so-called FRAND licensing (fair, reasonable and non-discriminatory terms and conditions). That’s an appropriate remedy where under-inclusiveness is the problem, so long as there’s a market measure for a “fair” license (royalty) price. Where the licensor, as in this instance, is everyone except the licensee, I for one fear there would be no objective way to assess whether license rates were reasonable.

Christine Varney

DOJ's Christine Varney

The lack of an effective remedy for a competition problem does not, of course, require that the transaction involved be blocked.  At the same time, where a problem cannot be fixed, that is a good enforcement policy reason not to allow the structural market conditions giving rise to the issue in the first place. Put another way — a slight modification of an old aphorism — if there’s no remedy, maybe there should be no right. Whether the viability of the Rockstar consortium is decided by outgoing Assistant Attorney General Christine Varney or her September successor, the forthcoming answer should be interesting.

 

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Apple More Profitable Than MSFT

postedPosted in Business, Tech Bytes on April 28th, 2011 by glennm

Apple_profit_graph_071022_ms

This was bound to happen, given Apple’s tremendous iPod, iPhone and iPad innovations, but it is still absolutely amazing. To think that once Bill Gates had to invest $150 million in Apple just to keep it alive as a competitor!

with net income now at $5.23 billion, Microsoft now comes in well behind Apple, which had a net income of $5.99 billion last quarter.

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Syncing the Cloud

postedPosted in Business, Cyberspace, Tech Bytes on May 8th, 2009 by glennm

Thank goodness for start-ups. OffiSync does what GoogleDocs doesn’t. VentureBeat.com.  Not unsurprisingly, it took a new venture to support syncing between GoogleDocs and MS Office.  Maybe it’s a question of focus, maybe a question of availability of interoperability protocols and specifications from Microsoft.  But either way, it’s a good development.

venturebeat

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Euthanasia for Palm OS

postedPosted in Business, Tech Bytes on February 12th, 2009 by glennm

Sure, Palm’s new Web OS is not yet out, and will only be there when the “Pre” is released sometime later this year, but this is a very sad end to an innovative operating system.  Palm Euthanizes Palm OS pre-Pre. A sad end. [CrunchGear]. One can hope — without much realistic chance, I am afraid — that the company itself can survive the dramatic changes rapidly morphing PDAs and cellphones into small, mobile PCs.  I think Palm is toast and, as a (former) long-time Palm user, find it rather ironic that the category-creator is losing out to far later arrivals.  The famed “applications barrier to entry” that protected Microsoft for so long on the PC desktop has done little to advantage Palm, it appears.

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Windows, Not Walls?

postedPosted in Boob Tube, Cyberspace, Pop Art, Tech Bytes on August 22nd, 2008 by glennm

Seinfeld and Microsoft: More Proof that IT is Crazy. So says Mark Gibbs in backspin, adding that Redmond’s planned "Windows, Not Walls" tag line for combating Apple is lame.

Just the idea that anyone could think of pitching Windows as being such a powerful facilitator of communications defies belief.

Agreed wholeheartedly. Sorry, Bill Gates, but I’ll enjoy laughing at your advertising appearances with an archaic comedian most famous for a show about nothing.

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ET Phone Home

postedPosted in Business, Rants, Rock Me Baby, Tech Bytes on May 12th, 2005 by glennm

Microsoft’s Bill Gates says the raging popularity of Apple’s iPod player is “unsustainable.” Gates Sees Mobile Phones Overtaking iPods [Reuters.com].

Yeah, right. Just like the “Tablet PC” was going to make laptops extinct and Microsoft’s “Media PC” is going to take over the family room entertainment centers of the world. Can I have some of what he’s smoking?

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SCO’s Follies

postedPosted in Cyberspace, Lawyers, Guns & Money, Tech Bytes on February 11th, 2005 by glennm

Most people other than the SlashDot and open source crowds haven’t been following the case, but a small company called SCO Group has sued IBM, claiming that the latter violated copyright rules in developing the Unix (and hence Linux) operating systems. I have always regarded this as a simple strike suit, designed to terrorize the open source movement with threat of copyright judgments — a legal strategy funded by Microsoft — without much substantive merit. Well, the courts appear to agree. Judge Slams SCO’s Lack of Evidence Against IBM [ZDNet.com]

Viewed against the backdrop of SCO’s plethora of public statements concerning IBM’s and others’ infringement of SCO’s purported copyrights to the Unix software, it is astonishing that SCO has not offered any competent evidence to create a disputed fact regarding whether IBM has infringed SCO’s alleged copyrights through IBM’s Linux activities.

That’s judicial-speak for “you lying bastards, get out of my court”!!

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Microsoft and DRM

postedPosted in Cyberspace, Lawyers, Guns & Money, Rock Me Baby, Tech Bytes on October 8th, 2004 by glennm

In a move to prevent Microsoft from using its dominance in PC operating systems to control the burgeoning field of digital rights management (DRM), European regulators are considering blocking the company’s acquisition of an influential DRM patent holder. EU Wants Windows Cleaned of DRM [Wired News]. The European Commission has launched an in-depth investigation into Microsoft’s and Time Warner’s acquisition of the digital rights management company ContentGuard.

The issue here in reality is not DRM, but rather the anticompetitive use of patents. Proprietary technologies and standards are OK, indeed beneficial — witness VHS v. Beta, etc. — and even firms with market power are permitted to benefit from the protections accorded by patent law. On the other hand, where a monopolist uses patent acquisition to foreclose entry, especially in “innovation” markets, antitrusters are naturally and properly worried.

Having said that, this is no different from Microsoft’s historic patterns. The company has never invented anything, rather buys up technologies (like DOS, Internet Explorer, PowerPoint, etc.) and excels — no pun intended — at commercializing new ideas and integrating them into its dominant Windows operating system. Microsoft’s Windows Media Player and proprietary A/V format are still losing in the battle with Real, QuickTIme and the protected AAC format used by Apple’s iTunes Music Store. So instead of building a better mousetrap, Redmond buys one. (Whether it’s better or not of course remains to be seen.) Par for the course.

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Can’t Win ‘Em All

postedPosted in Business, Cyberspace, Lawyers, Guns & Money, Media Matters, Tech Bytes on June 30th, 2004 by glennm

Much as last week’s judicial decision on media concentration was a great victory, today’s ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeal for the D.C. Circuit — upholding the government’s 2001 antitrust settlement with Microsoft — was a terrible loss. Microsoft Prevails in Antitrust Appeal [InternetNews.com]. Not only because I was counsel to the appellants, as “third fiddle” behind former Judges Robert Bork and Ken Starr (renowned lawyers whether one agrees with their rather extreme politics), but more importantly because the court just failed to grasp the significance of the issues it was dealing with.

For instance, even though Microsoft was found to have unlawfully monopolized the PC operating system market by bundling Internet Explorer into Windows, the court ruled that a decree (i.e., a remedy) that does NOT require unbundling is adequate and in the “public interest.”

This is really bad news for antitrust enforcement and utilmately for consumers. The market has moved far beyond the “browser wars” between Netscape and Microsoft that gave rise to the case in 1995, but an end result that allows a convicted monopolist to do the same things to other upstarts — and thus squelch competition — that it did to drive Netscape from the market is inexplicable.

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